Global Trade Wars and Economic Forecasts: Evaluating the Long-Term Effects of U.S. Protectionist Policies

Abstract

The re-emergence of U.S. protectionist policies has generated far-reaching effects on global trade flows and long-term economic forecasting. This study aims to evaluate how these policies particularly those enacted during and after the 2018 U.S.–China trade conflict have impacted trade structures, forecasting practices, and institutional governance. Using a qualitative research design, the study analyzes primary policy documents, international trade reports, and secondary data from global institutions, employing thematic analysis to interpret emerging patterns. The results reveal that protectionist trade strategies have accelerated the fragmentation of global trade, fostered regionalization, and significantly increased forecast uncertainty among major economic institutions. Affected sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and agriculture responded by adopting resilience-focused strategies, including supplier diversification and reshoring. The study concludes that U.S. protectionism has transformed not only trade relations but also the foundations of global economic governance and forecasting. These findings underscore the need for adaptive economic modeling, resilient industrial policy, and enhanced institutional capacity in an increasingly volatile trade environment.